Sources & Methodology

Every number has a source.

All market sizing and growth data cited on this website comes from independent, third-party research firms. Below is a complete reference of every source, including scope, methodology, and publication date.

TAM and CAGR figures are third-party estimates and are not VVC projections. All data published within the last 18 months as of March 2026.

Sector Market Data

Total addressable market (TAM) and compound annual growth rate (CAGR) figures cited in the Investment Thesis Sector Focus section.

Space & Propulsion

McKinsey & Company / World Economic Forum — April 2024

$1.8TTAM
~9.5%CAGR

Report Title

Space: The $1.8 Trillion Opportunity for Global Economic Growth

Forecast period: 2023–2035

Scope

Global space economy encompassing satellite communications, earth observation, navigation, launch services, space exploration, and space-enabled downstream applications. Covers the full value chain from upstream manufacturing through downstream services.

Methodology

Joint McKinsey–WEF analysis combining proprietary modeling with data from 150+ space companies, government agencies, and industry associations. The $630B base (2023) and $1.8T projection (2035) account for both direct space revenues and space-enabled economic activity. Validated by Space Foundation ($613B in 2024) and Novaspace ($626B in 2025).

View original report

Autonomy & Robotics

MarketsandMarkets — 2025

$26.5BTAM
7.8%CAGR

Report Title

Military Robots Market — Global Forecast to 2029

Forecast period: 2024–2029

Scope

Global military robots market including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), unmanned marine vehicles (UMVs), and autonomous robotic systems. Segmented by platform, capability, application, and region.

Methodology

Bottom-up market sizing combining defense procurement budgets, manufacturer revenue analysis, and program-level spending data. Base year 2024 ($18.2B) with forecasts validated through primary interviews with defense contractors, procurement officials, and technology integrators across 25+ countries.

View original report

Security & AI

Gartner, Inc. — July 29, 2025

$213BTAM
15% YoYCAGR

Report Title

Gartner Forecasts Worldwide End-User Spending on Information Security

Forecast period: 2025 (with $240B projected for 2026)

Scope

Worldwide end-user spending on information security and risk management, including network security, endpoint security, cloud security, identity access management, application security, data security, and security services.

Methodology

Gartner’s proprietary IT spending forecast methodology combining vendor revenue surveys, enterprise IT budget surveys, and macroeconomic modeling. Gartner is the industry-standard reference for cybersecurity market sizing, cited by CISOs, boards, and investors globally. The $213B figure represents 2025 end-user spending, up from $193B in 2024.

View original report

ISR & Sensing

Grand View Research — 2025

$131.5BTAM
4.2%CAGR

Report Title

C4ISR Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report

Forecast period: 2025–2033

Scope

Global C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) market including hardware, software, and services across airborne, ground-based, naval, and space-based platforms. Covers the full ISR value chain from sensor systems through data fusion and command-and-control integration.

Methodology

Grand View Research’s proprietary methodology combining defense procurement analysis, vendor revenue data, and government budget assessments across 30+ countries. The broader C4ISR scope ($131.5B) reflects the integrated nature of modern ISR systems, which are inseparable from their C2 and communications infrastructure.

View original report

Data & Intelligence

Mordor Intelligence — March 2026

$10.4BTAM
13.2%CAGR

Report Title

Artificial Intelligence and Analytics in Defense Market — Growth Trends and Forecast (2026–2031)

Forecast period: 2025–2031

Scope

AI and analytics in defense including hardware, software, and services across airborne, land, and naval platforms. Applications cover cybersecurity, battlefield healthcare, warfare platforms, logistics management, training and simulation, and surveillance. Technologies include AI, big data analytics, IoMT, and immersive technologies.

Methodology

Mordor Intelligence’s defense-specific analysis combining government AI program budgets, vendor revenue data, and technology readiness assessments. Market size of $10.41B (2025) growing to $21.93B by 2031. Validated against DoD AI strategy documents, NATO AI adoption plans, and allied defense modernization programs.

View original report

Advanced Materials

MarketsandMarkets — September 2025

$41.6BTAM
8.4%CAGR

Report Title

Aerospace Materials Market — Global Forecast to 2030

Forecast period: 2025–2030

Scope

Global aerospace materials market including composites (carbon fiber, glass fiber), alloys (titanium, aluminum, nickel superalloys), ceramics, and specialty polymers. Covers materials used in airframes, propulsion systems, armor, space structures, and next-generation platforms.

Methodology

MarketsandMarkets’ proprietary methodology combining supply-chain analysis, raw material production data, defense procurement records, and manufacturer capacity assessments. Base year 2025 ($41.6B) with forecasts to $62.3B by 2030. Validated through interviews with materials scientists, defense program managers, and tier-1 aerospace suppliers.

View original report

Market Tailwinds Sources

Research reports and industry analyses cited in the Investment Thesis Market Tailwinds section. All published between September 2025 and March 2026.

Q4 2025 Defense Tech VC Trends

PitchBook (Q4 2025)

Source for the $49.9B defense tech VC figure (966 deals in 2025) and the 87% late-stage capital share statistic. The report tracks venture capital investment across defense technology subsectors including space, cyber, autonomy, and dual-use platforms.

Visit source

US Defense Disruptors Capture Outsize Valuations

McKinsey & Company, Aerospace & Defense Practice (Dec 2025)

Source for the 218% DoD software R&D growth figure. Analyzes how defense disruptor companies are commanding premium valuations relative to traditional primes, driven by software-enabled margins and dual-use scalability.

Visit source

Defense: Shifts in Geopolitics Ramp Up Interest in M&A

McKinsey & Company, M&A Practice (Feb 2026)

Source for the 20x+ EV/EBITDA multiples on defense disruptor transactions. Reports that defense M&A deal value rose from $31B in 2023 to $63B in 2025, with disruptor multiples rising from ~13x to above 20x.

Visit source

Alignment of Dual-Use Companies and Private Capital Start to Take Shape

Public Spend Forum / Ash Bedi (Dec 2025)

Source for the $52M average funding per dual-use company statistic. Analyzes how capital is concentrating in execution-ready platforms, with average funding surging from $21M in 2023 to $52M in 2025.

Visit source

Defense Tech Startups Had Their Best Funding Year Ever in 2025

Defense News / CB Insights (Jan 2026)

Source for the 41% increase in firms investing in defense tech. Reports that the investor base grew from under 100 firms in 2017 to over 300 in 2024, with a 41% year-over-year increase in active investors in 2025.

Visit source

NVCA Statement on Congressional Passage of FY26 Defense and Government Funding Bill

National Venture Capital Association (Mar 2026)

NVCA statement supporting the FY26 defense funding bill, emphasizing the role of VC-backed innovators in national security technology. Highlights key investments in AI, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing.

Visit source

Q4 2025 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor

PitchBook & NVCA (Jan 2026)

Comprehensive quarterly report on U.S. venture capital activity. Provides context for defense tech VC within the broader venture landscape, including deal counts, valuations, and fund performance data.

Visit source

The Global M&A Market in 2025: Defense and Aerospace

Bain & Company (Jan 2026)

Bain's annual M&A report noting that defense & aerospace deal value reached $63B in 2025 (up from $31B in 2023). Highlights the shift toward software-defined defense and the premium valuations commanded by dual-use platforms.

Visit source

Additional Sources

Primary research sources cited for veteran entrepreneurship statistics, survival rates, VC allocation data, and defense budget figures.

"Factors Affecting the Earnings of Veterans" — SBA Office of Advocacy

Hope, Oh & Mackin (2011), prepared for SBA Office of Advocacy

Source for the "45% more likely to be self-employed" statistic. Cited on p. 1 of SBA Office of Advocacy (2017), "Veteran-Owned Businesses and Their Owners." The study analyzed Census and Current Population Survey data on veteran self-employment rates.

Visit source

"Experiences of Women and Minoritized US Military Veteran Business Owners" — Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy

Deming, Carpenter & Anders (2025), Vol. 14, No. 1, Emerald Publishing / IVMF, Syracuse University

Source for the 5-year survival rate comparison: veteran-owned businesses are 5% less likely to close and have an 8.2% lower risk of failure compared to non-veteran peers, with 55–57% surviving at least five years vs. the ~48% national average. Cited in IVMF Congressional Testimony (Dec 10, 2025).

Visit source

2021 National Survey of Military-Affiliated Entrepreneurs (NSMAE)

Maury et al. (2022), Institute for Veterans and Military Families (IVMF), Syracuse University

Source for the VC funding gap: only 1.31% of veteran entrepreneurs reported using venture capital or angel investment (Table 8.1, p. 52). The survey covered 10,817 military-affiliated entrepreneurs across all 50 states.

Visit source

NDAA Conference Reports & CRS Defense Budget Analysis (FY21–FY26)

Congressional Research Service (CRS IN12209, Dec 2023; IN12425, Jun 2025); U.S. Congress

Source for the FY21–FY26 defense budget chart showing NDAA authorized totals (Function 050 discretionary BA implication): FY21 $740.5B (P.L. 116-283), FY22 $768.2B (P.L. 117-81), FY23 $857.9B (P.L. 117-263), FY24 $886.3B (P.L. 118-31), FY25 $895.2B (P.L. 118-159), FY26 $900.6B (P.L. 119-60). Figures represent total national defense authorization, including DoD and DOE nuclear programs.

Visit source

"Do Military Veterans Make Better Entrepreneurs?" — VVC White Paper

Burrell, D. (2019), Veteran Ventures Capital

VVC's founding white paper analyzing why military experience produces stronger entrepreneurs. Cites IVMF, RAND Corporation, CNAS, Korn/Ferry International, and Harvard Business Review research on veteran leadership, operational discipline, and entrepreneurial outcomes.

Available upon request

"From Service to Startup: Empowering Veteran Entrepreneurs" — IVMF Congressional Testimony

Misty Stutsman Fox, IVMF, Syracuse University (Dec 10, 2025)

Testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Small Business. Cited for the veteran business survival rate data (5% less likely to close, 8.2% lower failure risk) and the finding that veterans represent 5% of all employer businesses.

Visit source

2025 Small Business Credit Survey: Firms in Focus — Veteran-Owned Firms

Federal Reserve Banks (2025)

Most recent Federal Reserve survey of veteran-owned business financing. Reports that 73% of veteran-owned firms experienced financial challenges and 57% sought external financing. Provides data on approval rates and financing shortfalls.

Visit source

SBA Office of Advocacy — Facts About Small Business: Veteran Ownership Statistics (2025)

U.S. Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy (Nov 2025)

Latest SBA infographic on veteran business ownership. Reports 1.78 million veteran-owned employer firms (5.0% of all employer firms) generating $1.13 trillion in annual receipts. Based on 2022 Annual Business Survey data.

Visit source

Our Approach to Data

Veteran Ventures Capital uses market data to contextualize the sectors where we invest, not to make forward-looking projections. All TAM and CAGR figures are sourced from independent, third-party research firms with established methodologies and industry recognition.

We prioritize sources that meet the following criteria: publication within the last 18 months, coverage of the specific defense and dual-use technology segments relevant to our portfolio, and transparent methodology including primary research (interviews with industry participants) and secondary validation (procurement data, government budgets, public filings).

Where multiple credible sources exist for a given sector, we select the report whose scope most closely matches our investment focus. For example, our Autonomy & Robotics TAM uses the "Autonomous Defense Platforms" market definition (covering UAS, UGV, USV, and UUV) rather than a drones-only figure, because our portfolio spans air, ground, and maritime autonomous systems.

These figures are updated periodically as new research becomes available. If you have questions about any specific data point, please reach out.